Ten Predictions for 2009 Posted by Deal Journal There is only one activity more thankless than predicting the future–and that is publicly sharing your predictions. But Christmas is the season for sharing, so here is my list of predictions for 2009. Caveat lector, of course, so much of this is bound to be wrong. But I would be willing to bet my Harvard M.B.A. that at least three of them are correct. Okay, maybe two of them. Prediction No. 1: General Motors will file for bankruptcy-law protection by the end of April Will the TARP money tide GM over until 2010? Not a chance. Bondholders and the UAW will fight. Rick Wagoner will get the sack. And the “car czar” will get fed up. In the end, Congress will balk at forking over the $50 billion GM really needs. Prediction No. 2: Bernie Madoff will plead insanity at his trial, but lose anyway. In this age of excuses, why shouldn’t Madoff try and get off? He will surround himself with the finest lawyers money can buy–and they will concoct a doozy of an insanity plea. But it won’t matter. The verdict? Guilty as charged. Prediction No. 3: Goldman Sachs will buy E*Trade and make a big push in internet banking. Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein makes a big show of defending the old Wall Street business model. But he knows the gig is up. Expect Goldman to acquire E*Trade by June. How else will Goldman get the platform for Internet banking and retail brokerage that it needs? Of course there is Charles Schwab, but at $18 billion, that is almost half the value of mighty Goldman. Prediction No. 4: Wall Street will shrink another 25% Wall Street will discover to its horror that it indeed was “different this time.” By April, there will be more job cuts. By late autumn, yet another round. In all, a quarter of the jobs on Wall Street will go in ‘09. Come year end, bonuses will be even skimpier than they were in 2008 and Harvard M.B.A.s will pour into consulting–or, dare I say it, government. Prediction No. 5: Apple will get a new CEO No shocker here. Eventually Steve Jobs and the Apple board will tire of the ceaseless questioning and distraction. Jobs will stay as chairman, an Apple insider will be named CEO–and the company will do just fine, thank you. Prediction No. 6: Bloomberg will buy the New York Times Another tired rumor that finally comes right. It isn’t the fear of losing the dividend that will panic the Sulzbergers. It is the fear of losing it all. Finally, the family will revolt against CEO Arthur Jr. In a bidding war, Bloomberg will win out to give him influence in Gotham beyond his third mayoral term. Prediction No. 7: Oil will trade at around $30 a barrel for most of 2009 OPEC isn’t happy with $30 oil. But it will be even more unhappy if Obama goes ahead with all his nutty antifossil-fuel schemes. So OPEC will keep oil prices low until America is lulled into again thinking that $1.50 gas will last forever. That should take about a year. Oil will close 2009 back at $50 a barrel. Prediction No. 8: The worst-performing global market in 2009 will be the contemporary art market It will be a race to the bottom for the frothiest luxury markets, such as Hampton beach homes and downtown NYC condos. But the contemporary art market will be the stand-out loser. It will nearly evaporate, as many art investors of the past couple of years realize they have been Madoff-ed. Don’t expect to see the sale of too many Damien Hirst formaldehyde cows or sheep next year. Prediction No. 9: The S&P 500 will close 2009 at 1200, up 30% In this weekend’s Barron’s magazine (also published by Dow Jones), 11 of 12 “savvy” Wall Street strategists targeted the S&P to close 2009 somewhere between 975 and 1100. The consensus is nearly always wrong. By late summer, third quarter earnings will turn up, investor greed will replace resignation and a late year rally will take the S&P to 1200. Prediction No. 10: President Barack Obama will have the single most successful inaugural year in Presidential history There is nothing like somebody else’s failure to make you look good. By early 2010, with the economy on the mend, the country will be measuring Obama for a spot on Mount Rushmore.
As informações contidas neste site são estudos da equipe, ou opiniões pessoais dos participantes, e não representam, de maneira alguma, recomendações de investimento, isentando a todos sobre qualquer resultado da tomada de decisão para operações com base no conteúdo aqui apresentado. Alguns textos podem ter sido produzidos por terceiros e baseiam-se em dados de outras fontes, as quais julgamos confiáveis. Entretanto, não podemos garantir a integridade de tudo que é exposto, de forma que não nos responsabilizamos pelo uso e/ou interpretação das matérias publicadas. Os direitos de propriedade intelectual do site pertencem a "Trading In Blog", não sendo permitida a reprodução, modificação, comercialização ou distribuição deste material sem que haja uma expressa autorização, e um link para a origem com devida citação da fonte.
4 comentários:
Não tem um símbolo do Greminho na segundona? hehehehehe
xiiiii, ái ái ái...Bob, Bob!
em caixa de marimbondo
Mexe Não, meu irmão!!!
Mean Street: Caveat Lector! Ten Predictions for 2009
Posted by Deal Journal
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2008/12/22/mean-street-caveat-lector-ten-predictions-for-2009/
cara!
Ten Predictions for 2009
Posted by Deal Journal
There is only one activity more thankless than predicting the future–and that is publicly sharing your predictions.
But Christmas is the season for sharing, so here is my list of predictions for 2009. Caveat lector, of course, so much of this is bound to be wrong.
But I would be willing to bet my Harvard M.B.A. that at least three of them are correct. Okay, maybe two of them.
Prediction No. 1: General Motors will file for bankruptcy-law protection by the end of April
Will the TARP money tide GM over until 2010? Not a chance. Bondholders and the UAW will fight. Rick Wagoner will get the sack. And the “car czar” will get fed up. In the end, Congress will balk at forking over the $50 billion GM really needs.
Prediction No. 2: Bernie Madoff will plead insanity at his trial, but lose anyway.
In this age of excuses, why shouldn’t Madoff try and get off? He will surround himself with the finest lawyers money can buy–and they will concoct a doozy of an insanity plea. But it won’t matter. The verdict? Guilty as charged.
Prediction No. 3: Goldman Sachs will buy E*Trade and make a big push in internet banking.
Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein makes a big show of defending the old Wall Street business model. But he knows the gig is up. Expect Goldman to acquire E*Trade by June. How else will Goldman get the platform for Internet banking and retail brokerage that it needs? Of course there is Charles Schwab, but at $18 billion, that is almost half the value of mighty Goldman.
Prediction No. 4: Wall Street will shrink another 25%
Wall Street will discover to its horror that it indeed was “different this time.” By April, there will be more job cuts. By late autumn, yet another round. In all, a quarter of the jobs on Wall Street will go in ‘09. Come year end, bonuses will be even skimpier than they were in 2008 and Harvard M.B.A.s will pour into consulting–or, dare I say it, government.
Prediction No. 5: Apple will get a new CEO
No shocker here. Eventually Steve Jobs and the Apple board will tire of the ceaseless questioning and distraction. Jobs will stay as chairman, an Apple insider will be named CEO–and the company will do just fine, thank you.
Prediction No. 6: Bloomberg will buy the New York Times
Another tired rumor that finally comes right. It isn’t the fear of losing the dividend that will panic the Sulzbergers. It is the fear of losing it all. Finally, the family will revolt against CEO Arthur Jr. In a bidding war, Bloomberg will win out to give him influence in Gotham beyond his third mayoral term.
Prediction No. 7: Oil will trade at around $30 a barrel for most of 2009
OPEC isn’t happy with $30 oil. But it will be even more unhappy if Obama goes ahead with all his nutty antifossil-fuel schemes. So OPEC will keep oil prices low until America is lulled into again thinking that $1.50 gas will last forever. That should take about a year. Oil will close 2009 back at $50 a barrel.
Prediction No. 8: The worst-performing global market in 2009 will be the contemporary art market
It will be a race to the bottom for the frothiest luxury markets, such as Hampton beach homes and downtown NYC condos. But the contemporary art market will be the stand-out loser. It will nearly evaporate, as many art investors of the past couple of years realize they have been Madoff-ed. Don’t expect to see the sale of too many Damien Hirst formaldehyde cows or sheep next year.
Prediction No. 9: The S&P 500 will close 2009 at 1200, up 30%
In this weekend’s Barron’s magazine (also published by Dow Jones), 11 of 12 “savvy” Wall Street strategists targeted the S&P to close 2009 somewhere between 975 and 1100. The consensus is nearly always wrong. By late summer, third quarter earnings will turn up, investor greed will replace resignation and a late year rally will take the S&P to 1200.
Prediction No. 10: President Barack Obama will have the single most successful inaugural year in Presidential history
There is nothing like somebody else’s failure to make you look good. By early 2010, with the economy on the mend, the country will be measuring Obama for a spot on Mount Rushmore.
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