sexta-feira, 13 de março de 2009


China: Exports Drop
March 11,2009 | 1651 GMT

China's exports in February fell by 25.7 percent from a year earlier, dashing expectations that the country's crucial export sector would hold up better after January's 17.5 percent slowdown in export value, according to China's customs bureau on March 11. The sudden and sharp drop reveals that China's most critical source of business and government revenues are far from recovery and are running dry due to depressed global demand.
In the past few weeks, the Chinese government and state press have drawn attention to signs that the domestic economy is improving. Bank lending increased substantially in January and February in support of struggling businesses and consumers, as well as government-prompted development projects. The purchasing managers index (PMI), a rough measure of overall manufacturing activity, climbed for the last 3 months to a reading of 49 in February, and the government is predicting positive growth of 54 percent in March. (A reading above 50 indicates growth, while one below 50 indicates contraction.) Even in the February export news released March 11, the losses are allegedly offset by a 26.5 percent increase in January's and February's fixed asset investment, slightly over the 2008 growth rate of 26.1 percent, possibly indicating that fiscal stimulus policies are having an effect.

Nevertheless, exports are vital for the Chinese economy, comprising about 40 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). By means of robust trade surpluses, China manages its day-to-day expenditures and puts away foreign currency reserves in case things get worse. February's trade surplus, however, fell to a mere $4.84 billion, down from $39.1 billion in January. China still retains its nearly $2 trillion in reserves to resist the economic downturn, but it is reluctant to tap this last resort and prefers to rely on trade surpluses — which are now dwindling.
February's export numbers do not bode well for China's recovery — the similarly drastic 24.1 percent drop in imports also indicates how badly domestic demand has been struck, especially given the vast amount of effort Beijing has devoted to trying to increase that demand. China's latest trade data, while not complete, reveal the increasingly high toll that the global recession is taking on the Chinese economy. Ultimately, the pain in China's export sector will contribute to social problems that are already bubbling up from unemployment. This in turn will increase the heat on the Communist Party as it steps up security efforts and tries to maintain order.

4 comentários:

aguia disse...

caro leitor:

eh notorio que existe hoje, alem de uma expectativa otimistica, uma enorme esperanca , a nivel mundial, de que uma eventual recuperacao mais rapida na economia chinesa, ajude a melhorar o quadro geral recessivo; hoje ja depressivo em alguns paises.

por tal motivo, passarei a dar destaque a alguns artigos que enfoquem, com seriedade e embasamento, tal possibilidade; a que se possa encontrar, pelo menos aqui no TiB, informacoes serias e confiaveis a respeito de tao relevante tema; haja vista a viciosa mania festiva da midia, em geral... e a pouca confiabilidade que se pode emprestar aos dados oficiais oriundos daquele pais, neste particular.

Anônimo disse...

O link a seguir foi copiado da comunidade investidor agressivo do Orkut:

Turma do Boteco

Bob disse...

Aguia, só discordo de um item no texto, "social problems". Em países como a China, Cuba, Coreia do Norte não há, nunca houve e nunca haverá problemas desta magnitude pois quem reclamar vai pro paredão. Abaixo FMI, Sarney e Lulla, hehehehehehe. Viva Via Campesina, hehehehehe

aguia disse...


kibao que apareceu, k-cild`s!!!

some nao gente...EXCELENTE a sua contribuicao e o link que garimpou de tao bao vai pru Poste.


vc eh um ANARQUISTA inveterado... nunca houve execucoes nestes paises (e nem na Alemanha de Hitler ou na Russia de Stalin e sequer na China de Mao, etc): segundo tais governos tal boataria foi tudo 'marola' dos oposicionistas...

bracao pro 6