Global Fundamentals and Country Fundamentals

O londrino Stephen Jen do Morgan Stanley teceu um comentário bem provocativo. Não me darei ao trabalho de traduzí-lo para o nosso vernáculo, então segue na íntegra:

I am still being reminded by country economists to pay attention to the country-specific fundamentals. While differentiation is politically correct and intellectually attractive, I believe it is not very useful in the current phase of the Emerging Markets (EM) sell-off. To me, global fundamentals will be key, not country fundamentals.

In fact, focusing on the latter could be the worst thing an investor could do in a sell-off phase. When the global economy and risk-taking start to recover, however, country fundamentals will matter more in differentiating various currencies’ performances.

In short, for the coming months, virtually all EM currencies will weaken further against the dollar, in my view, regardless of the country fundamentals.